Rooty Hill RSL NRL Blog

Finals Race

 

Well the Manly Sea Eagles are 100% the luckiest team in the comp. The fact they got over the line against Cronulla yesterday despite the Sharks leading and playing with 12 men is a miracle.

 

Their form and the Dragons poor efforts recently has blown the comp wide open. Throw in the loss of Kimmorley for the Dogs, the Eels and Broncos big wins and all of a sudden it’s a 7 team race for the premiership.

 

If I was a bookie (and I wish I was) this would be my market.

 

$6 Bulldogs, Parramatta, Titans

$7 Melbourne, Manly, Brisbane, Dragons

20 Newcastle

$50 Penrith

$100 + Tigers

 

The reason I have the Titans so well up there is the fact they will play a home semi final and I will tip them to win that no matter who they play. And if there is an upset in the other games then the Titans get another home semi for the major semi, albeit at Suncorp but the bottom line is they may not have to travel.

 

That also applies to the Broncos who may play the Titans in week 1 of the finals.

 

Parra will do it tough but if they win against the Dragons on Friday night then they will be favourites to win the comp on form and they probably will win it.

 

The Bulldogs without Kimmorley are a different team. Melbourne have their mojo back if last week is anything to go by and Manly are unpredictable after yesterdays performance.

All of my predictions could go pear shaped if the Raiders win tonight, leaving the door slightly open for the Tigers and Panthers next week.

 

But here is my Grand final tip for now...

 

Bulldogs and Titans

Round 25

Once again we have a crucial round in the NRL and even though 5 of the games look easy to pick on paper you get the feeling at least 1 upset is on the cards.

 

Can South’s, the Warriors, Roosters or the Tigers pull something special out. You will notice I left out Cronulla because they are the one team I can guarantee will get beaten.

 

Tonight’s game is season defining for the Eels and Panthers. Remember even with all the hype around Parramatta at the moment the fact is they are not in the 8!! And they have St George to come next week so even if they win tonight they are no guarantees to make the finals.

 

Having said that I am a born again Eels fan and Hayne fever has got me also so I'm tipping them to continue their winning run.

 

The Panthers can still make the finals but next play the Knights in a tough one.

 

 

I think the Saturday games pick themselves with the Titans too good for the Tigers. Melbourne will belt the Roosters now Inglis is back and the Dragons can't lose 3 in a row can they?

 

I know of all the clubs in the comp South’s play their best when they are underdogs and they would love nothing more than to mess up the Dragons season.

 

Sunday again should be put in and take out. The Warriors are not good travellers and miss Steve Price and I think a few players might 'save' themselves for the Stacey Jones farewell game the following week.

 

And if the Bulldogs don't turn one on for Hazem I will be very surprised.

 

Equally Manly with Brett Stewart back could score more than Australia in the cricket, against the Sharks who have had a wretched season. The only thing that they might not get is the wooden spoon but they are not over the line yet, Manly will win.

 

Monday’s game is a crucial one. Newcastle will know their fate after Sunday but you expect if they win they can wrap up a finals spot but the Raiders at home have beaten the Saints and Brisbane recently so they will do me.

 

Best of the weekend

 

Titans to beat an under strength Tigers

Manly to put 30 on the Sharks

Round 25

So 2 Rounds to go in the NRL and I think there are at least 6 teams who can win the comp, possibly 7.

At this stage you can’t say that any of the top 3 sides can’t win & its pretty obvious but then you get to Melbourne, once Inglis is back they can win it. Manly, are a big chance as well. The Broncos can definitely win it just because they know how to and the win over the Dragons tell me they are back. The Eels are playing the best of anyone so they can win it. Whoever finishes 8^th, Penrith or Newcastle well they might find the going a little too tough…but then I do you remember the Warriors beating the Storm last year.

The Eels win on Friday was sensational but the Tigers were good as well. People forget they scored 3 tries to 2 but trailed because of the 8 point try and the other conversion, but games against the Titans and the Bulldogs and the growing injury toll will make life very hard for the Tigers to make the 8.

I just pinch myself thinking about the finals series especially after the year of off field dramas we have had and I am amazed that the game is still going strong and the Football is so good. Imagine what sort of crowds we would be having if the off field dramas were not happening?

The games this week aren’t as enticing as last week but given the number of upsets that we have had in the last few weeks then maybe South’s, Roosters, Canberra and the Sharks are thinking about knocking off a few more scalps before they head off on their end of season trip.

I must chip in about Jarryd Hayne being talked about as the best footballer in any code in Australia. Dangerous, dangerous stuff from Gus Gould.

For starters it’s ridiculous to compare but if we were:

·         Shane Smeltz has played 3 games for Gold Coast and scored 6 goals

·         Gary Ablett averages 30 – 35 possessions a game for Geelong who have been sensational for the Cats all year

I will cop the Union comparison as they are fairly ordinary but comparing between AFL, Soccer and League is a bit hard, but at least it grabbed a headline and that’s what Gus does well. I wait in anticipation for the follow up Rugby Union ‘offer’ to appear in the papers in the next few days.

Whatever happens over the next few weeks one thing is for sure, when this year is over we will miss the footy.

Its about this time of year that I start to wonder what we are going to do on Friday Nights or ‘Super’ Saturday when we all have no Rugby League to watch.

The game this Friday between Parra and Penrith should have all of us Westies salivating at the contest. The Parra fans have come out of the woodwork over the last month or so and this will be a sellout.

If Hayne can manage another big performance then he will almost certainly win the Dally M award named next month…how things have turned around…remember he was the one who got shot at in Kings Cross earlier this year.

He now prays regularly at Church along with team mate and flatmate Ben Smith and both are playing better football at the moment so maybe we will see a rush of others who turn things around. The good thing Hayne said was he still enjoys a beer and hasn’t given up celebrating but he just doesn’t want to waste his talent.

Sounds like some good advice to me !!!

Round of the season

Well this weekend has been described by some as the round of the decade. Don’t know about that but it sure is a ripper.

 

The changes that can happen with teams in the comp and their place on the ladder is remarkable.

 

Tonight both the Tigers and Parra can be as high as 5th or be out of the 8 completely by the end of the weekend and I think and hope the Tigers will be 5th.

 

They are playing so well at the moment and their form, as has Parramatta's has been outstanding but I just like the Tigers and the way they are defending is incredible.

 

Parra have Hayne and the Tigers have Benji, just buy a ticket and get there.

 

If you don’t want to go to the SFS then head to Wollongong and watch the Dragons and Broncos. I know the Dragons haven't lost at home but they are very bad value at 1.20 given what Brisbane did last weekend in the 2nd half. I think the Dragons will win but not sure by how far.

 

Saturday’s games should be a case of walk in & pick the 2 favourites and wait to collect.

 

Penrith will beat South’s and Newcastle will beat the Cowboys but if the reverse happens then both Newcastle and Penrith will deserve to be out of the 8.

 

The ‘Who Cares Cup’ is the Warriors and Raiders on Sunday. Best tip on this game is take the bride out to lunch so you can get in the good books and come back to watch Melbourne and Manly and the Titans whip the Sharks.

 

The start is 20 for the Sharks but the way they went last week if I was Ricky Stuart I would be telling the boys to enjoy a day at the beach and relax Saturday because it won't be much fun on Sunday.

 

The pick of the round is Melbourne v Manly and I think the Eagles can continue the horror last month for Melbourne with injuries, Greg Inglis and losing.

 

Manly are about to unleash on the top 4 and a win this week could push them ever so close to getting that 4th spot.

 

 

Best of the weekend

 

Manly all up the Tigers

Top 8 is heating up

Well I said it would be a weird weekend of footy and it was.

 

Thankfully the 2 teams who I declared as absolute certainties both won (Parra and Tigers) but as far as the other games go it was toss of the coin stuff.

 

The real result of the weekend was the 2 in form sides in Parra and the Tigers are both now in the 8 (tonight’s game might change that) but who would want to play them the way they are going. Funnily enough they are up against each other this week and the more you look at the draw this week becomes even more mouth watering.

 

Friday Night Footy is a beauty starting off with the Tigers vs Eels - whichever side wins will wrap up a top 8 spot for mine.

 

Dragon’s vs Broncos – If the Broncos win they will start to scare a few teams above them.

 

Knights and Cowboys - Whichever team loses can kiss the year goodbye

 

Panthers v Rabbitohs - Same as above, and if South’s win, results need to go their way.

 

Storm v Manly – If Melbourne lose they will lose 4th spot (especially if they lose tonight), if Manly win they might just be the dark horse in the competition.

 

I think again the only thing you can bank on is whoever is playing the Warriors, Roosters and Sharks.

 

The backend of the NRL season is going to be a ripper. On form this is what the top 8 might look like in a few weeks time

 

St George

Bulldogs

Titans

Melbourne

 

Manly

Parra

Tigers

Broncos

 

So the first week of the finals all of a sudden looks like anyone’s.

 

It’s the tightest end to a season anyone can remember and the way things are going the race is far from over. I know the fact that the grand final is already sold out means I’m not the only one who thinks that way.

Round 23 "All up for Grabs"

This is the most important round of footy to date.

 

Every single game has a bearing on the top 8 and with 12 teams still in the race anything could happen.

 

Take the Brisbane Penrith game for example. One is 5th and one is 10^th, yet only a point separates them on the ladder. The Cowboys could be 5th or 12th at the end of this weekend, very scary for all concerned.

 

I reckon I could end up with 8 out of 8 or 2 out of 8. I say that because the Eels are morals to beat the Warriors and the Tigers should get the cash against the Sharks.

 

Every other game is toss of the coin.

 

Tonight the Bulldogs can win but so can the Cowboys…no Patten for the Dogs but they do play well away from home and every time they have been put under pressure they have responded. But Bowen, Thurston, O'Donnell and co at home??? Don’t know.

 

South’s can beat the Titans but then again the Titans can easily beat South's so this is the same scenario isn't it?

 

The Rabbitoh’s were outstanding last week beating Manly and on that you have to tip them. However the Titans are the quiet achievers and can wrap up a home final if they win tonight. 

 

Saturdays games on paper look a little easier but I said that last week when Manly were supposed to beat South’s and the Bulldogs were told to whip Canberra. So this week the Roosters, Canberra and Eels should all be winning... (the Eels will) but I don’t know if that will all go to plan.

 

Freddie’s Roosters aren't playing that bad but Manly should win this but they have lost 2 in a row after we all thought they would smash the Tigers and South’s so just maybe they are not as invincible as we thought.

 

The Raiders put 56 on Brisbane last time at home. Dragons are a great side but this is not over the line by any stretch.

 

Sunday is also a tough one with Penrith going ok of late and just maybe an upset is on the cards. The Broncos were average for mine on Monday and traditionally the backup is tough for them this year, just look at Origin.

 

Monday night - If the Storm players can come up for this and win then they will be very strong. The Greg Inglis stuff has to have an effect and I think the Knights have a great opportunity to play themselves back into some form, but there is fight left in the Storm don’t worry about that.

 

My official tips for the weekend - PARRA and WESTS TIGERS

 

The rest are a complete guess and I have as much chance of tipping them right as my dog Milly - who went for Titans, Bulldogs, Manly, Saints, Penrith and the Storm

 

Round 22

I knew I couldn't tip 4 from 4 going into Saturday but did anyone other than a diehard South’s fan think they had any hope of knocking off Manly, especially after being 12 nil down in as many minutes.

 

I'm only going to tip one team from here on in, and that’s the Dragons. They are a professional outfit that will be very hard to beat for the title. They simply strangled the Panthers to death, gave them nothing and the Panthers panicked and the Saints never panic. Even when they drop the ball, miss a tackle, get behind, they just don't panic. (sorry Dragons fans I probably just killed their chances off as well. But I think I can’t even stop the Dragons)

  

Melbourne were ok without being spectacular. Canterbury showed they can win ugly but Canberra showed they can also get beaten. I've had my say about Manly and the way Watmough and Orford were going at each other makes you suspect something isn't right there either.

 

The Titans made sure they will get a home final by beating the Warriors and they should really consider changing their names to "Once were Warriors" because this mob this year are not Warriors.

Parramatta...what about them - are they not the best team to watch in the competition. Newcastle just stink and if they gave Brian Smith the green light last week expect a hastily convened board meeting in the next few days to reverse that decision. They play the Storm this week and if they don't win that then there season is gone, which I think it is anyway.

 

The Tigers are now into the 8. How they did that is a miracle and that's why we can’t continue to tip and punt on the game. A month ago Manly were flying , The Tigers were legless and Parra right behind them.

Now the reverse is happening!!!

 

Tonight should see the Broncos win, BUT, BUT, BUT on recent form who knows. $1.16 to win and they have had 200 points scored against them in about 5 games. Leave me well clear of that.

Review Round 21

Well I give up

 

The Titans, Newcastle, Penrith, Brisbane and Manly. Just leave me out of tipping comps forever.

 

More teams this weekend outside the 8 won games than teams in the 8!!!

 

And this is happening at the wrong time of the year but the 2 form teams of the comp outside of the top 2 are the Tigers and the Eels.

 

If they manage to find their way into the 8 then watch out, especially Parra who get Mateo back this week.

 

The Tigers are surely going to make it after winning their 4th in a row.

 

I'm not so sure about some other teams who have hit the proverbial wall. Brisbane are GONE...Newcastle have lost too many easy ones lately to be a threat and the Brian Smith thing isn't helping. South’s are history, the Titans look dodgy and even Melbourne are struggling and may not hold onto the top 4 spot.

 

 

Anyway the fact remains the Dragons and Bulldogs are the best teams in comp by a mile and they deserve to be in the playoffs. The others will have to earn their way in the next 4-5 weeks.

 

It’s going to be a terrific month in the game and let's hope we can have some footy headlines and not more of the crap we are getting some days.