Rooty Hill RSL NRL Blog

Round 21

So Karmichael Hunt has signed for AFL. Good luck to him and good luck to the bloke who's idea it was. $1 million for him is way over the odds but it’s not my money so good luck K.

 

More important to me is tonight’s footy and round 21 of the NRL.

 

The Dragons and the Storm looks a great match to kick off the weekend and the stat that is compelling is Melbourne have won 9 out of the last 10 against the Dragons...but Wayne Bennett has only lost 1 and that was by a point in the first game of the year. For mine that's the difference, he is a legend and we are getting a close up look at why.

 

I watched them train yesterday and I truly believe they will win the comp so they can win tonight...I hope

 

The other game has the Titans protecting a great home record against the Cowboys, who have one of the worst away records in the comp.

 

2 weeks ago the Cows had 40 put on them by the Tigers and last week another 30 by Penrith. That is a danger sign for me and I will strongly tip the Titans to continue their home record.

 

Saturdays game between the Raiders and Broncos shapes as season ending for Brisbane if they lose.

 

I think with a bad for and against another loss will put them out of contention for the 8 and for that reason they have plenty to play for. Even more so K Hunt given what's gone on this week BUT I still think Canberra will win.

 

Penrith are the biggest certainties for the weekend because we are now invoking rule #10a of punting and tipping, and that is never ever tip or back the Warriors especially away from home.

 

The only team they did beat was the Roosters, enough said.

 

Parramatta face the Sharks, and at the moment The Eels are one of the form teams in the comp. They broke the Monday night hoodoo last week against the Dogs and given Jarrod Hayne is playing out of his skin they should belt the Sharks.

 

And Newcastle should also belt the Roosters in their match at Energy Australia stadium. The Roosters get Fitzy back but the Knights get Gidley back so that should see the Knights come out on top.

 

Newc to win by 20

 

 

The Sunday game at ANZ should draw 40 thousand with the Bunnies fans coming out of the closet after they win 3 in a row and the Dogs fans always supporting the team. I love the way South’s are playing, they haven't won 3 in a row by 20 pts or more for 50 years so until they stop I'm going to keep tipping them...and I suspect the Armani suits will be forever banished by JT and replaced by the tracksuits.

 

Monday night footy is another cracker with the Tigers and Manly a ripper of a game. I will save my thoughts till Monday but I think the tigers winning run might stop courtesy of the Eagles.

 

Enjoy the footy

Round 20

Poor old Brisbane are struggling big time and the punters got the word early about who wouldn't be playing tonight. I spoke to my friendly local bookie who told me the smarties got the Titans at $1.45 on Wednesday, they are now into $1.18.

No Lockyer, Hunt, Thaiday and Wallace and the last time the Broncos had a new fullback, five eighth and half combination, they got belted by Cronulla in a Monday night game 46 to 12!!  The Titans are a better side than the Sharks so expect a similar score line tonight.

 

The other match also has a bit of a plunge smell about it with Kurt Gidley expected to be out of the Knights side. If that’s the case then Manly are also morals. Manly can really start to make an impact on the finals with a win tonight. I personally also think the Brian Smith stuff will have an impact on the team whether you like to believe it or not.

 

Specials of the weekend. TITANS ALL UP MANLY

 

The Saturday game finally live up to the hype of Super Saturday with all the games having some sort of impact on the finals and all the teams playing ok football.

 

Bulldogs v Parramatta is a ripping game on paper with the Eels running into some form over the past few weeks but how do you not tip the Dogs. They are simply the 2nd best team in the comp and deserve to be shorter than the odds on offer so I am happy to charge into them also and have some fun watching them put some tries on. The Eels also have to back up after Monday night and I hate tipping sides who do that, because more often than not they lose.

 

 

Cowboys v Penrith - I sniff an upset here. The Cowboys are 2 different sides. The away side is disgraceful as we saw last Sunday against the Tigers and the home team is very good, BUT Penrith are really going well at the moment. I know they lost 2 weeks ago to Souths but I just think they are on the verge of putting a few together and I don’t trust the Cowboys, even at home.

 

Melbourne v Sharks – you may think I'm mad but I am tipping the Sharks!! They have won 3 of their last 4 against Melbourne in Melbourne and were very good last week against Manly and a tad unlucky. The Storm on the other hand were average against the Eels and I know they have had origin to deal with. I just sense they may struggle the next few weeks with injuries and depth. Finch comes back but they are expected to lose Hoffman and Johnson. The rumours won’t go away about injuries to Inglis, Slater and Smith so I'm happy to tip an upset and think Cronulla with the start is very enticing.

 

I think the upsets will continue on Sunday with the Tigers to beat the Raiders in Canberra and Warriors to knock off the competition leaders the Dragons. Having said that I won’t be taking the odds because the 2 teams I picked to win would send you broke if you backed them each week. Its about this time every year the Warriors pull their collective fingers out and last week against the Roosters they went pretty well.

 

Mondays game seems a lock also with the Rabbitohs up and away over the past fortnight. The only worry is the 10 day gap between games but the plus side is they are only playing the Roosters who lose so much with Fitzy not playing.

 

 

So the tips this week.. Titans, Manly, Bulldogs, Penrith, Sharks, Tigers, Warriors and Souths. Tipping all 8 is paying just under 200/1.

Smith to replace Freddy

So the Roosters punted Freddie and the under 20's strapper knew before he did.

 

Sometimes life really does suck.

 

Before I go any further I need to say Freddie is a good friend and we work together at Bigpond so some of what I say could be considered as bias but bad luck.

 

When you see a mate get treated like that then you want stick up for him.

 

I did not have a problem with Freddie being told he was no longer wanted but I certainly do have a problem about the way this was done.

 

The Roosters could've handled it so much better and Brad Fittler deserved a classier farewell than finding out the day before a grand final reunion!!!

 

Yeah that's right let's organise a day out for the guys who win a grand final for the club against the Warriors (Freddie starred that day) and while we’re at it let's fire the coach!!

 

To quote Gus “No, No, No, No, No”.

 

I understand that this is how things work in this day and age but unless someone had the guts to change it then it will continue to happen.

 

I don't blame Brian Smith at all...someone knocks on your door waving $2.4 million in front of you then you answer it!

 

Time will tell whether the Roosters have made the right or wrong call but every time something goes pear shaped they try and buy their way out of problems...Steve Noyce, who is also a good mate is in unfamiliar territory. Unlimited cash and resources were never something he had at the Tigers and he won respect and a premiership because he knew how to get everyone working for the right cause.

 

Let's hope for the Roosters sake he and Brian Smith can do something with the talent they have on offer.

 

As for Freddie, he will be ok. Watch for him more on TV on Bigpond and maybe some other ideas we have. I still believe he would be the man for the job as Origin coach for NSW.

 

Like Mal he is a legend for the Blues and we need him around.

 

Round 19 - Origin Fallout

After Wednesday night it’s a case of punter beware this weekend as we don't know who is going to back up.

 

Tonight Brisbane has lost Lockyer, Hodges, Thaiday and maybe Hunt and South’s could be without Crocker.

 

The thing about South’s is they always play bad after they win the previous week. The Broncos are always average after Origin and I just can't warm to them. This one if a flip of the coin job.

 

The Bulldogs are a little better off injury wise and I think they are the best bet of the weekend against the Titans who are backing up from Monday night. The 4 day back up is tough and too tough for the Gold Coast minus Harrison.

 

The 2 games on Saturday shouldn't be too hard to pick. Penrith were awful last week and I can't tip them especially if Jennings doesn't play, Canberra to win.

 

Manly will be fired up to bounce back with the cavalry of stars returning even though Matai is a loss, the Sharks have no Gallen and possibly no Barrett, so no chance.

 

The Sunday game between the Roosters and the Warriors is a stat man’s dream.

 

The Warriors have averaged 14pts a game and the Roosters scoring average isn't much better. The Roosters just.

 

And the Tigers maybe favourites against the Cowboys but one team is nearer last than first and the other is 5th and playing for a top 4 spot. Makes me think the Cows have more to play for. They are good value even at Leichardt Oval.

 

I know the away record is awful but my senses tell me an upset is on the cards.

 

Best of the weekend

Bulldogs all up Manly

Origin Recap

Finally NSW did what we all knew they could in one of the best games of football I've ever seen.

 

Even with the refs sending a couple off late for nothing more than a love tap the match fixed up most of the dramas we have had in the game this year.

 

How good was Watmough? The best on the paddock by a mile and every time he touched the ball NSW got some momentum.

 

The blues did what they had to do, they were in the face of the Maroons and gave as good as they got. The Williams try in the first half was a bit lucky but hey it’s about time we got some luck.

 

I was also impressed by Barrett, Noddy, Ennis, Creagh, Hayne and Gidley. They all went extremely well and it was obvious the big guns of Qld, Thurston and Lockyer were both a bit quiet.

 

Inglis was their best by far.

 

For the first time this year I agreed with Gus Gould who said.."Get ‘em back next week for another game". It was fantastic and breathed life into a dead series.

 

Well done to NSW.

 

 

I can't wait for the next series with the likes of Creagh, Jennings, Hayne, Gidley and co leading NSW to a redeeming victory in the series.

Contenders & Pretenders

Don’t get too excited if you are a fan of the Rabbitohs because even though you had a big win on Friday night the chances of you even being in the finals are a thousand to one.

 

If they manage to fluke it then book the end of season trip for the next week because if they face the Dragons then watch out. 

 

They were awesome against Manly and it made me realise they are the team to beat by so far its not funny. The next team is the Bulldogs and after that I am almost prepared to say Melbourne and Manly, and that’s it.

 

The AFL is down to 4 and so is the NRL. 

 

The effort yet again of the Dragons players without their stars was nothing short of magnificent and while the Eagles had plenty out, so did the Saints.

 

Across the Tasman the Dogs were great but even allowing for the fact that the Warriors stunk, the Bulldogs are the real deal this year and good luck to them if the go to the Big Show in October.

 

I just can’t believe how far the gap is between the good sides and the average sides. While the depth of the competition is always going to be tested at Origin the luck of the draw has a lot to do with it.

 

Would the Saints have beaten Manly by 30 if they played after Origin or in a couple of weeks?

 

How much would the Bulldogs have belted NZ by?

 

The best bet of the weekend saluted in Newcastle but having said that the injuries are starting to pile up for the Knights and with Mullen out for a month they may struggle at the back end, the bye next week will help.

 

Tonight the Titans should be the other bet of the week by putting a score on Parra, but beware Punters if they get in front by a few then John Cartwright might want to rest some key players late in the game because they have to back up again on Friday night which is amazingly unfair on paper.

 

The Dogs have to fly back from New Zealand and then head to Brisbane also after the brusing match with the Warriors.

 

And for the record, the origin is a toss up. QLD have lost 3 or 4 key players while the NSW losses are made up for the fact the players that are coming in are all playing well, take the Blues with the start.    

 

Origin selections

The NSW team has been announced and a lazy 8 changes to the side that lost game 2 and who knows how many changes since game 1.

Will they win??? Absolutely.

The Blues have now picked the most in form side they could. Lets run through the contentious spots.

Wing - The Wolfman had to be picked, he is starring for Manly and yeah he had 1 bad game. Hands up who doesn’t want him there for this one.

Centres - Jennings had to come in - no contest

Five Eight - Barrett was one of our best and Mullen has not done enough at club level form mine.

Halfback - Noddy maybe old but he is in career best form and the best player going around wearing the 7 for NSW.

The forwards - OK Josh, Tom, Mick, Poorey, Chocco, Benny, Gifty, Wingy and the rest of you.. here is your chance to put your name in the books as the Blues of the future, all young guns, all playing well and all now having the honour to play against the Maroons in Queensland.

I love this side, youth, experience and more than anything in form players.

Like I said I love this side and with Queensland set to make a few changes themselves then this game is not a lock like many would have you think.

They need to find 2 new props, a hooker and a winger but I am tipping Scott Prince might be the hooker so that could hurt the Blues also.



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And another thing I think the suspension to Nate Myles seems a little slack on paper.. I know it was only his first offence ( i think) but what he did really is deplorable and casts another ugly shadow on the game.

Nate is a good fella and would be extremely embarrassed about what happened and so he should but a 6 week suspension does not send a hard enough message


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The performances over the weekend that really impressed were of course the Dragons on Friday night, both the Dogs and Manly were good last night ...the Cowboys bounced back, I didn’t mind the Titans effort after being down and out at half time and you also had to like Newcastle's gutsy effort against Melbourne down there.

On the downside South’s win hands down - no more to be said on that one.